Global Market Weekly Report：
January 2025, Week 3
This report covers key market events, economic data, and future outlooks across global financial markets, highlighting major trends and their implications.
Citation: BBC News、NASDAQ News
China's Economic Challenges Amid Property Crisis
China's projected GDP growth of 4.9% for 2024 faces significant hurdles due to a protracted property crisis, rising local government debt, and high youth unemployment.
These structural weaknesses raise concerns about China's long-term economic stability, impacting global markets.
Trump's Tariff Threats on Global Trade
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President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs of $500 billion on Chinese goods and potential levies on Canadian imports have sparked renewed trade concerns.
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These measures threaten global supply chains and could negatively impact economic growth, particularly for economies heavily reliant on US trade.
Easing Inflation and Central Bank Responses
2.9%
Inflation
US inflation reached 2.9% in December, driven by energy prices, while core inflation eased to 3.2%.
2.5%
UK Inflation
UK inflation fell to 2.5%, prompting speculation about a potential rate cut by the Bank of England in February.
Meta’s Workforce Reductions
Cost-Cutting
Meta Platforms announced a 5% reduction in its global workforce as part of a broader cost-cutting strategy to improve operational efficiency.
Stagnant Growth
The move reflects stagnant growth and increasing competition in the tech sector, raising concerns about potential damage to employee morale and innovation.
Volatility in Energy and Commodity Markets
Crude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with potential easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports counterbalanced by OPEC+ production adjustments.
Agricultural commodities like wheat and soybeans have faced downward pressure due to improved supply forecasts and stable inventories.
China's Economic Crossroads
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Property Crisis
2
Declining Consumption
3
Export Weakness
4
Debt Burden
5
Systemic Inefficiencies
Escalating Trade Tensions
1
Proposed tariffs by Trump could disrupt global supply chains, particularly for economies heavily reliant on US trade, such as Canada and China.
2
The World Bank estimates that even modest tariff increases could reduce global GDP by 0.2%, highlighting the potential for significant economic fallout.
3
Analysts emphasize the need for multilateral trade agreements to prevent economic fragmentation and mitigate the adverse effects on global markets.
Inflation and Central Bank Adjustments
US Inflation
Despite the overall rise in US inflation to 2.9%, the easing of core inflation to 3.2% suggests a potential stabilization of price pressures.
UK Rate Cut Speculation
The decline in UK inflation to 2.5% has eased pressure on the Bank of England, leading to heightened speculation about potential rate cuts.
Meta's Strategic Realignment
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Cost-Cutting
2
Improving Efficiency
3
Investor Confidence
4
Growth Concerns
Commodities and Energy Dynamics
Crude Oil Volatility
Speculation about easing sanctions on Russian energy exports has exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices, but OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks provide underlying support.
Stable Agricultural Prices
Favorable supply conditions for wheat and soybeans have contributed to price stability, though adverse weather remains a wildcard.
Global Market Review
US Economic Indicators
Inflation
US inflation for December indicated a 2.9% annual increase, driven by a surge in energy costs. Core inflation eased to 3.2%, signaling a potential stabilization of price pressures.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims rose slightly to 217,000, suggesting cooling in the labor market.
Empire Manufacturing Index
The Empire Manufacturing Index dropped to an 8-month low, reflecting regional economic slowdowns.
Global Commodities and Trade
Wheat Stocks
The International Grains Council raised its global wheat stock forecast to 265 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting improved supply conditions.
Cocoa Demand
Cocoa demand showed weakness, with European and Asian grindings declining due to high prices.
Crude Oil Inventories
Crude oil inventories in the US remained 6.3% below the five-year average, supporting a bullish long-term outlook despite recent price declines.
Market Outlook
Equities
US stocks are expected to face continued volatility due to earnings season and sector-specific pressures. However, dovish monetary policy expectations may provide some upside. European markets are likely to benefit from monetary easing, while Asian equities hinge on China's economic stabilization efforts.
Bonds
Bond yields are likely to remain subdued as central banks signal accommodative policies. US Treasuries are poised for further gains, supported by easing inflation expectations, while European bonds may see additional demand amid dovish ECB sentiments.
Commodities
Crude oil is expected to maintain levels above $80 per barrel due to supply constraints and geopolitical risks. Agricultural markets could face renewed volatility if weather conditions deteriorate in key producing regions like Brazil and Argentina.
Forex
The US dollar may weaken further as Fed rate cut expectations solidify, providing support for the euro and emerging market currencies. The British pound could stabilize, supported by easing inflation and potential rate cuts from the Bank of England.